Quebec politicians have been crisscrossing the province, making commitments to address healthcare, education, and cost of living issues in recent weeks. However, as voters prepare to cast their ballots on Monday, a comprehensive analysis spanning over three decades reveals that provincial governments are more prone to breaking or retracting campaign promises than fulfilling them.
Research conducted by Université Laval’s Polimeter project indicates that Quebec governments have successfully delivered on only 49% of their election pledges since 1994. The ability of a government to uphold its commitments is influenced by factors such as economic conditions, term duration, and the nature of the promises.
Lisa Birch, co-founder of Polimeter and a researcher at the Centre for the Analysis of Public Policy, emphasized that promises within the government’s control are more likely to be kept. For instance, the previous Coalition Avenir Québec government’s initiative to bolster secularism laws solely required legislative enactment and legal defense.
Conversely, promises involving targets dependent on addressing issues like labor shortages or negotiating with federal entities present significant challenges. Alexandre Fortier-Chouinard, a post-doctoral researcher at Université Laval working on the Polimeter project, highlighted the difficulties in fulfilling commitments that require both action and specific outcomes.
One notable example was former Premier François Legault’s 2018 vow to ensure access to a family doctor for every Quebec resident. Despite legislative efforts to increase physician capacity, the healthcare system’s enduring workforce shortage made the target unattainable, leading to the abandonment of the pledge by the CAQ in the 2022 campaign.
Looking ahead to the 2026 election, the incoming government will confront substantial constraints, including workforce shortages in critical sectors like construction, ongoing deficits, and economic uncertainties stemming from trade disputes with the United States. Various parties, such as Parti Québécois and the Conservatives led by Éric Duhaime, have pledged to streamline government bureaucracy while enhancing essential services like healthcare and education, a challenging balance according to Birch.
Further complicating matters, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard’s proposal to construct 100,000 new housing units annually faces significant hurdles due to a scarcity of construction workers. Birch highlighted the time-intensive nature of private sector projects and funding processes, underscoring the complexities of such endeavors.
Analyzing past performance, Polimeter data revealed that the CAQ, upon assuming power in 2018, successfully implemented around 55% of its platform commitments, leveraging a budget surplus inherited from the previous government. However, the party’s success rate plummeted during its second term due to mounting deficits, healthcare funding disputes, and public sector reform challenges.
In conclusion, economic conditions play a pivotal role in a government’s ability to fulfill promises, with revenue fluctuations impacting pledge execution. Birch emphasized the importance of a government’s implicit mandate to navigate unforeseen circumstances, underscoring the dynamic nature of governance beyond predefined commitments.