A recent poll by Mainstreet Research indicates a close mayoral race in Toronto, with the top two candidates in a tight competition just three weeks before the election. Incumbent Olivia Chow holds a slim lead of 2.9 points with 40.8% support, while Coun. Brad Bradford has gained ground with 38.3% support following the withdrawal of Chris Alexander.
The survey conducted on October 6 and 7 reflects the intense competition nearing its climax, according to Quito Maggi, Mainstreet Research’s president and CEO. Maggi noted a potential momentum shift in the Bradford campaign, making Chow’s re-election chances less certain as the race tightens.
The poll results suggest a statistical tie between Chow and Bradford, with the margin of error being a key factor. Maggi highlighted the importance of voter turnout in determining the outcome of the election.
Compared to Mainstreet’s previous poll at the end of September, which had Chow leading by six points, the current results show a shift in support. CBC News sought comments from both Chow and Bradford regarding the poll findings.
Following Alexander’s exit from the race, respondents were asked to choose between Bradford and Chow, resulting in the current mayor leading with 44.7% support, while Bradford garnered 41.5% support. Maggi explained that support tends to consolidate towards the end of an election cycle.
The survey also revealed opinions on the reliability of Toronto’s public transportation system, with 40.2% considering it somewhat reliable and 33.8% finding it somewhat unreliable. Concerns over traffic congestion were cited as a significant issue by nearly half of the respondents.
Mainstreet’s data illustrated a demographic divide among supporters, indicating Chow’s lead among female and younger voters, while Bradford received more backing from older voters and men. The poll sampled 1,000 Toronto residents through interactive voice recording, with data weighted to align with census targets from 2021. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
As the advance polls open and the election day approaches, the full list of Toronto’s 53 mayoral candidates can be accessed on the city’s official website.