Keir Starmer is back from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully secured concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, there were no significant issues during the high-stakes visit to Beijing, much to No10’s relief. Now, the focus shifts to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election battle in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the traditionally safe Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will choose their new MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision by Labour’s governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster has sparked concerns among some MPs that this move could backfire.
There is speculation among backbenchers that losing the by-election could be interpreted as sacrificing a seat to exclude Andy Burnham, which might not bode well for Keir Starmer. However, there is optimism among some, like Labour MP Karl Turner, who remains hopeful about their chances in the by-election.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming by-election, pointing out the potential influence of various parties like Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. He emphasized the shifting dynamics of the constituency and the unpredictability of the outcome.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, described the by-election as a three-way race between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, all influenced by the presence of Nigel Farage. Tactical voting is expected to play a crucial role in determining the winner, with voters weighing their options to counter Reform’s influence.
As the by-election approaches, voters are grappling with the strategic choice between parties to prevent Reform’s success. The uncertainty surrounding tactical voting adds a layer of complexity to the electoral landscape, making the outcome difficult to predict.