A potentially record-breaking increase in Pacific Ocean temperatures is expected due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is anticipated to have significant global impacts, according to UN officials. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasted that this El Niño event would be exceptionally strong, with temperatures in the central Pacific rising approximately 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal from November to January, peaking around December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that such a temperature rise has not been previously recorded, surpassing the impacts seen in past El Niños. El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, is a naturally occurring climate pattern that affects global weather patterns, leading to higher temperatures worldwide and disruptions in rainfall distribution, causing both droughts and heavy rains in different regions.
While El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon unrelated to climate change, its intensity can be exacerbated by global warming due to already elevated baseline temperatures. The WMO warned of increased flooding risks in southern Africa and potential impacts on agriculture and water supplies in Southeast Asia due to warmer conditions and reduced rainfall. Conversely, Latin America may experience heightened rainfall as a result of El Niño.
The UN and WMO officials, including under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator Tom Fletcher, urged immediate preparedness for the upcoming El Niño event, describing it as a destructive force that will bring extreme heat, droughts, and floods to various regions, potentially leading to significant humanitarian crises. Fletcher highlighted the potential for approximately 50 million people to face heightened food insecurity as a result of these weather extremes.