The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and could become the most potent on record, heightening the risk of extreme weather events into the following year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated at a Geneva press briefing that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass all previous records in the past four decades of monitoring.
The World Meteorological Organization indicated a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented according to the agency. A severe El Niño can cause significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurring naturally every two to seven years and typically lasting up to 12 months, impacting rainfall and drought patterns in Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The World Meteorological Organization anticipates the peak of this El Niño towards the end of the current year, with effects expected to extend into 2027 and leaving elevated global temperatures in its aftermath. Secretary-General Saulo highlighted efforts to enhance preparedness and early warning systems in response to the intensifying El Niño.
The WMO is collaborating with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide critical climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. The organization is focused on delivering essential insights to support these sectors in mitigating the impacts of the changing climate landscape.