Russia has seen a significant increase in its oil exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s figures by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been shipped to Asia between July and mid-October, according to traders and data sources.
The NSR, connecting Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, is usually considered a risky and costly route. However, this year, it gained popularity due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea area.
Rising tensions in regions like Iran and Ukraine have led to a surge in tanker freight rates to record levels. This situation, combined with the inaccessibility of U.S. crude oil for Asian refiners, has driven them to seek alternative oil sources from the Middle East and Latin America, making the NSR a more attractive option despite the high tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance.
For Russia, which controls the NSR, this route offers a secure alternative to European waters where oil tankers have faced regular arrests this year. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route will increase by another five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% compared to 2025. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its supply of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia via the NSR, with a rise in LNG shipments following the commencement of Arctic LNG deliveries.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia anticipates doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The opening of Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the growing volumes transported through the NSR.