After facing political challenges for several months, Doug Ford shifted to a more assertive stance this week, engaging in a verbal battle with Donald Trump. Political analysts note that this confrontation with the unpredictable U.S. president aligns with the premier’s strengths and has led to a surge in his approval ratings just before three crucial provincial byelections.
The exchange of insults between Ford and Trump ensued following the breakdown of trade discussions between American and Canadian negotiators. Trump criticized Ford on Monday, comparing him unfavorably to his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, and mocking his charisma and intelligence. In response, Ford criticized Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully,” asserting his resilience to Trump’s insults.
This clash with Trump has proven advantageous for Ford in the past, notably aiding his victory in the snap election earlier in 2025. Recent data shows a 12-point increase in Ford’s personal approval ratings and a shift in the Progressive Conservatives’ lead in a Liaison Strategies opinion survey conducted on the same day as the confrontation.
As voters in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek prepare for the upcoming byelections, Ford’s dispute with Trump is anticipated to influence support for the PCs. While York-Simcoe traditionally leans Conservative, the races in Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are predicted to be closely contested, with experts suggesting that Ford’s anti-Trump stance could sway voter sentiment towards the PCs.
Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy highlighted the potential impact of Ford’s anti-Trump sentiment in mobilizing voters, particularly amidst simmering public frustration with Trump. NDP strategist Erin Morrison acknowledged the PC controversies but noted that Ford’s confrontation with Trump could serve as a significant game-changer in the upcoming byelections.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan emphasized that Ford’s emotional resonance with voters and understanding of public sentiment have contributed to his political success. While Duncan believes the fight with Trump may not sway the Scarborough byelection, he anticipates a positive shift for the PCs in Hamilton East, a riding they secured from the New Democrats in 2022.
Despite differing opinions on the overall impact of the Trump feud, experts agree that Ford’s government’s perception may see an improvement, potentially bolstering the PC vote share in the byelections. While the confrontation with Trump may have varying effects across different regions, it is expected to have a modest, albeit positive, influence on Ford’s political standing.