The historical pattern of the president’s party performing poorly in the midterms indicates that Donald Trump may not have to fulfill his recent commitment to provide each American citizen with a $5,000 US check.
Trump has introduced what he terms the “Trump dividend,” contingent on the Republican Party winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the upcoming Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Although the Democrats face a challenging task in seizing control of the Senate from Trump’s party, gaining the House is a more feasible goal. Currently, the Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, with 218 out of 435 seats.
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Trump offers $5,000 US to every American if Republicans win midterm elections
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Michele Swers, a professor of American Government at Georgetown University, expressed skepticism to CBC News about the Republicans retaining such a slim majority.
“It’s probably unlikely for them to keep control of the House practically, so the realization of this promise is doubtful,” she commented regarding the proposed dividend.
Since the 1960s, if a president’s approval rating drops below 50 percent, their party typically loses an average of 32 House seats, never fewer than nine, during midterm elections, as analyzed by North Star Opinion Research, a U.S. polling and strategy firm.
As per the Silver Bulletin polling aggregator, Trump’s current approval rating averages 38.5 percent.
Republicans lost 40 seats in Trump’s first midterm
In the previous 2018 midterms during Trump’s first term, where his approval rating was at 44 percent on election day, the Republican Party lost 40 House seats.
This scenario likened Trump’s promise to a Canadian party leader pledging $5,000 to every adult if the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series—a condition dependent on an uncertain outcome beyond his control.
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Analysis
Trump looms over U.S. midterms. Will he help or hurt Republicans?
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