A recent poll indicates a decline in both public perception of Premier Danielle Smith and support for her party in Alberta, with the UCP and the opposition NDP now running close. The Janet Brown Opinion Research Poll for CBC News reveals that 41% of respondents would back the UCP in a current election, matching the 41% supporting the NDP.
Previously praised for a lengthy honeymoon period akin to the Ralph Klein era, Smith’s government is now facing challenges according to pollster Janet Brown. The UCP is struggling to navigate various issues, including a controversial referendum and conflicting stances taken by the premier, leading to a loss of support on both sides of the independence debate.
John Santos, a data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research, notes that Smith is attempting to balance between moderate business conservatives and a far-right populist base discontented with COVID restrictions, but is facing criticism from both factions. The random survey of 1,200 Albertans conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21 indicates that the UCP has dropped eight points since April, while the NDP has gained five points, resulting in a dead heat between the two parties.
Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, highlights the NDP’s growing competitiveness based on the poll numbers, with an increasing number of respondents considering other party options. The UCP has experienced decreases in voter intention regionally, particularly in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton following the Calgary-Shaw byelection loss to the NDP.
Looking ahead, Young suggests that Calgary will be a crucial battleground in future months. Despite a slight decline in public approval for Smith, Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy high popularity in Alberta, attributed to his handling of trade issues and commitment to pipeline projects. Carney’s approval ratings surpass those of both the provincial leaders, emphasizing the unique political landscape in the region.