A recent poll conducted for CBC News indicates a shift in support for separation in Alberta leading up to the upcoming Oct. 19 referendum. According to the survey by Janet Brown Opinion Research, which involved 1,200 Albertans between Sept. 8 and 21, 23% of respondents expressed interest in initiating the legal process for a binding provincial referendum on separation, while 72% favored Alberta remaining a province of Canada. The remaining 4% were undecided.
In comparison to a previous spring poll by Janet Brown, the recent findings show a decrease in support for separation. Brown noted a trend where Albertans are increasingly comfortable with Alberta’s place in Canada, Ottawa, and the Prime Minister, leading to a slight decline in the number of individuals inclined towards separation.
The survey, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, reveals that sentiments regarding separation in Alberta have remained consistent over time, with a majority of respondents expressing a desire to remain in Canada.
Additionally, the polling explored the attachment of Albertans to Alberta and Canada, showing a shift towards feeling more attached to Canada or equally to both entities. This change could be attributed to factors such as Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa and ongoing geopolitical events impacting Canadian identity.
Political affiliations also played a role in the survey results, with a significant portion of United Conservative Party supporters leaning towards separation, while Alberta NDP supporters overwhelmingly favored remaining in Canada.
As the referendum approaches, the focus is expected to shift towards mobilization efforts to ensure voter turnout, given the entrenched positions on both sides of the separation debate in Alberta. Separatist groups have intensified their campaigns, targeting different demographics in their messaging leading up to the referendum day.
Concerns have been raised about voter turnout based on consistent polling showing low support for separation, with the potential for a closely contested outcome. The majority sentiment remains in favor of Alberta remaining a part of Canada, reflecting the prevailing attitudes among Albertans towards the separation question.