In May’s temperature report, Berkeley Earth, a prominent non-profit organization focused on climate analysis, estimated that there was only a 2.5 percent likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year on record.
Then, the El Niño phenomenon began to emerge.
By the following month, that chance had risen to 12 percent. In August, it soared to 69 percent. Currently, Berkeley Earth estimates a staggering 96 percent probability.
Could there be a connection between the possibility of 2026 being the warmest year on record and this notably intense El Niño?
This El Niño — characterized by a warming in the Pacific Ocean that can lead to a temporary increase in global temperatures — is already the most powerful recorded since 1950, surpassing the previous high set in 2015-16 by a significant margin.
Experts define a strong El Niño as a warming of 2 degrees Celsius above average. Last week, ocean temperatures in a specific region of the Pacific, known as “Niño 3.4,” reached 3.5 degrees Celsius above average.
The ocean temperature in a part of the Pacific Ocean near the equator dubbed Niño 3.4, which is used to measure the strength of an El Niño, is the warmest since records started in 1950. (Climate Central)
Typically, the global temperature effects of an El Niño are observed about three months after its peak, which is anticipated for November or December. However, projections indicate that 2026 will either be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024, or the second-hottest.
“El Niño is definitely contributing to the warmth we are experiencing,” stated Kent Moore, an atmospheric physics professor at the University of Toronto.
In its September monthly report, Berkeley Earth noted, “It remains significantly warmer than other months in 2026. September 2026 continued the trend of months exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that commenced in July, as the warming effects of El Niño have intensified.”
However, El Niño is not the sole factor.
Accumulated Ocean Heat
As Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), mentioned at the Global Heat Forum last month, “El Niño doesn’t introduce new heat to the planet. Instead, it releases heat that the ocean has been retaining beneath the surface.”
This retained heat is a consequence of climate change, driven by our ongoing reliance on fossil fuels and the subsequent increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
-
‘Super’ El Niño didn’t cause this year’s fires and heat waves, but it’s about to take us on a ‘wild ride’
-
El Niño is here, and it’s already looking like it could be ‘mind-blowing’
“The warmth we are observing in the ocean is largely attributable to the fact that we have been warming the ocean for the past 150 years,” Moore remarked.
In general, global ocean temperatures are at their highest levels ever recorded, as oceans excel at trapping excess heat.
Ocean temperatures have been the warmest in recorded history. (Climate Central)
Additionally, oceans are also effective at absorbing CO2, but they have their limitations.
“As the ocean warms, its capacity to hold carbon dioxide diminishes,” Moore explained. “This creates a feedback loop; as the oceans heat up, they become less efficient at absorbing carbon dioxide, which results in more carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere, contributing to further warming.”
It’s set to be a record-breaking few months of weather, driven by a ‘super’ El Niño. As Johanna Wagstaffe explores, a natural surge of warm ocean water is colliding with a planet hotter than ever before, bringing more extreme heat, floods, and droughts. But this ‘super’ El Niño could also help us prepare for what’s coming.
Thus, while El Niño may contribute to the global temperature in 2026, the primary factor remains the burning of fossil fuels and the greenhouse gases emitted into our atmosphere.
“You have the slow, gradual warming of the ocean, followed by El Niño stirring things up for about six months, resulting in a significant temperature rise,” Moore stated. “After El Niño subsides, the warming trend will persist.”
However, not all scientists believe that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information assigns a mere 0.1 percent chance of it being the warmest year and an 86.9 percent likelihood of it being the second-warmest.
Nevertheless, the annual global temperature for 2027 will certainly be more affected by El Niño.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, writing for Carbon Brief, a climate-focused publication, noted, “This year’s record-breaking El Niño will have its most significant impact on global temperatures in 2027. Carbon Brief anticipates 2027 will be approximately 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 percent probability that it will be the hottest year on record.”
Tag: rewrite-pending